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The latest barometers flashed encouraging signs that the economic slowdown may not be as pronounced as some had feared. Still, there’s much caution – about housing, credit and other problems.
“Economic or financial conditions could take an unexpected stumble at any time,” warned Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital.
Employers eliminated 20,000 jobs in April – not nearly as many as the 81,000 in March, and the fewest monthly losses so far this year, the Labor Department reported. The unemployment rate dropped to 5 percent, from 5.1 percent.
Stresses were still evident. It was the fourth straight month that employers cut jobs – bringing total losses to 260,000.
Many analysts were bracing for much more carnage. Yet, the new figures “can’t be taken as a signal that the economy is out of the recession woods,” said Nigel Gault, of Global Insight.
Investors were reassured by the dollar’s show of strength this week. The greenback’s latest gains have come on expectations that the Federal Reserve is likely to hold interest rates steady – a trend that makes U.S. assets more attractive to overseas buyers. The U.S. currency rose this week to a five-week high against the euro.
In turn, the dollar’s advance has had an impact in the commodities market. Food prices –such as for wheat and soybeans – eased. And while oil did rise Friday, that was because of supply concerns rather than moves in the dollar.
“Things are a little brighter,”said Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics. “The economy is seen as doing a little bit better” and that’s contributing to the stronger dollar and calmer food prices, he said.