• BY ALLISON MILES - AMILES@VICAD.COM
• Originally published October 28, 2009 at 7:42 p.m., updated October 29, 2009 at 12:45 a.m.

• MORE ABOUT HATFIELD

  Earned his bachelor's degree in agronomy from Kansas State University

  Earned his master's degree in agronomy from the University of Kentucky

  Earned his PhD in agricultural climatology and statistics from Iowa State University

  Has authored or co-authored ...

• SHOW ALL »

MORE ABOUT HATFIELD

Earned his bachelor's degree in agronomy from Kansas State University

Earned his master's degree in agronomy from the University of Kentucky

Earned his PhD in agricultural climatology and statistics from Iowa State University

Has authored or co-authored 347 publications and edited 10 monographs

Source: Jerry L. Hatfield's biography

Ready or not, climate change is coming.

That's the message Jerry Hatfield, laboratory director for the National Laboratory for Agriculture and the Environment, stressed Wednesday.

"The drought that you just came through is going to come back," he said to a crowd of about 300. "The wet periods that you may have not experienced before may come back. And all of those wreak havoc in terms of agricultural management."

Hatfield presented "Climate Change and Texas Agriculture" during a luncheon at the South Texas Farm and Ranch Show.

By 2030, the Southern United States' surface temperature is expected to increase while precipitation decreases, he said. The number of heat waves will also increase, while the length of time between periods of extreme heat will shorten.

Many people worry about increased methane, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, Hatfield said. In reality, past vegetation and ice cores indicate elevated carbon dioxide levels were present in the past, he said.

"This is not a new phenomena," he said. "And it's not all due to fossil fuel burning."

Changes mean major implications for agriculturists, he said. While corn might grow well in warm climates, it also needs cooler weather for certain parts of the growth cycle, he explained.

Animals, too, are directly affected.

Like people, they become uncomfortable and grouchy when the temperatures rise, he said, but they also adjust their reproductive patterns, amount of food they eat and metabolic rates. Meat and milk output are also affected with cattle.

A short California heat wave cost The Golden State $50 million in milk production, he said.

When it comes to rangeland and pastureland, Hatfield said changing precipitation will affect growth, increased carbon dioxide levels will impact forage quality and species composition and long-term use and sustainability will also be impacted.

The indirect impacts - insects, disease and weeds - might actually cost producers more than the direct impacts, Hatfield said, explaining these things have responded best to the rising carbon dioxide concentration.

All in all, he advised producers to begin thinking about how to prepare. It's the within-season variations, not the long-term changes, that will have the greatest impact.

"So, be prepared for extreme variations over the next few years and think about how you're going to cope with all of that," he said.

The presentation was informative and made sense, said Danny May, chairman of the South Texas Cotton and Grain Association.

One of the more interesting things Hatfield said was scientists have found elevated carbon dioxide levels as far back as the Ice Age, before humans roamed the earth, May said.

"I don't think we're the biggest problem," he said. "One volcano can cause more problems than man."

Edna farmers and ranchers Carole and Kenneth Koop weren't sold, however.

The husband and wife duo said they've heard that, over the past 11 years, temperatures have dropped, rather than risen as Hatfield said, Carole Koop explained.

"I don't know where he got his data," Kenneth Koop said, "but we've heard differently."

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