• Originally published October 30, 2009 at 5:37 p.m., updated October 30, 2009 at 6:38 p.m.

(EDITORS: This story is embargoed for Web use until 1 a.m. EDT.)

By Greg Bedard

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

(MCT)

MILWAUKEE — The NFL has long prided itself in being a league of great parity, at least since the salary cap was instituted for the 1994 season.

Unlike Major League Baseball, every team has a chance. You can go worst-to-first easily in one year (the secret is you need to play in and against weak divisions). Any team can win the title or at least go to the Super Bowl. Look at small-market teams such as Green Bay or Buffalo.

Well, that's been the NFL's populist message as it has climbed to the top of the professional sports pyramid.

But is it true?

Given the rash of recent blowouts — six of the 13 games last weekend were decided by 28 or more points — there is reason to believe it is not.

And, more important, with the NFL set to enter an uncapped year in 2010, and its labor future beyond that point very cloudy, could it be gone forever?

First, let's look at where the league is right now.

According to research done by coldhardfootballfacts.com, parity appears to be teetering:

The number of four-touchdown blowouts last weekend was last matched in 1970, the first year of the AFL-NFL merger.

The average margin of victory was 20.3, exceeded only by the 23.5 in 1970.

The 59-0 victory by the New England Patriots over the Tennessee Titans in Week 7 was the mostlopsided game in 33 years.

In 2009, 81.6 percent of games have been decided by more than a field goal. That's the most since 1985 and third-most since the merger. In 2008, 80.5 percent were decided by four points or more, also among the highest rates since the merger.

Blowouts are also en vogue in 2009: 54.4 percent of games have been decided by 10 points or more, the most in 17 years.

Who says there are no kings in the kingdom? Four teams — all in the AFC — have ruled the past 14 years: Denver, New England, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh. Combined, they have won 11 of the past 14 AFC titles, six of the past eight Super Bowls and eight of the past 12. They are a combined 22-4 this season.

It would be logical to point at those statistics and conclude that, like the economy, things go in cycles. And that may well be true.

But people around the league say, if anything, the widening disparity between the top and bottom of the league has everything to do with managing the salary cap — some teams are great at it, others still tend to be foolish with their money.

And that's where 2010 comes into play.

If there is indeed a dichotomy in the NFL, it is almost certain to be widened after the season.

With no collective bargaining agreement in place or even on the horizon, 2010 will have no salary cap. That means teams are free to spend as much as they want on player acquisitions.

But there will also be no salary floor. So if teams want to cut player costs — becoming less competitive — and pocket the rest of the money, they are free to do so.

There are rules in place, however, that will keep the very best and richest teams from going on a spending spree after the season.

In the "Final Eight Plan," the four teams in each conference that make the divisional round of the playoffs willbe restricted in how many free agents they can sign. Basically, whatever the salary is of the player they want to sign, they need to cut ties with a player or players on their roster that add up to that number.

The service time needed to become an unrestricted free agent goes from four to six years.

Also, each team will have one more tag to use on their unrestricted free agents. Until '10, teams could use one franchise tag (two first-round picks in return for signing) or one transition tag (right to match offer). Next year, teams can use one of each.

But here's the thing: All of that only applies for '10. After that, all bets are off. There is expected to be an owners' lockout in '11, and it's impossible to say what the next collective bargaining agreement will look like.

So with parity waning, a season looming without a salary cap or floor, and with owners like the Dallas Cowboys' Jerry Jones saying revenue sharing will not be a part of the next CBA, the disparity between the top and bottom teams in the NFL may only grow.

If that's the case, the power of the NFL will only shrink.

How about them Lions?

The Detroit Lions are favored by 4½ points over the St. Louis Rams.

That's not a misprint.

It's the first time the Lions have been favored since the 2008 opener at home against the Atlanta Falcons, a game the Lions lost, 34-21.

In the previous six games this season, the Lions have been underdogs by a combined 63½ points. The smallest spread was 9½ against the Redskins — Detroit's only victory, 19-14.

Being a favorite has started a lot of talk that the Lions are in must-win mode against the Rams (0-7).

"I'd be lying if I said I wasn't looking at it like that," linebacker Larry Foote said. "But in all games, there can be three little things that can dictate a game.

"You go off (records), we should win. But there are no guarantees. We've got to play our game."

If there was any team that needed to practice the "victory formation" — the play at the end of the game when the winning teams runs out the clock by having the quarterback take a knee — it's the Lions. They haven't used it in almost two years (23 months and 26 days).

In their last two victories — against Kansas City in Week 16 in '07, and against Washington — the Lions' defense was on the field for the final play of the game.

The last time the offense was on the field was against Denver on Nov. 4, 2007, when the Lions won, 44-7. Center Dominic Raiola snapped the ball to quarterback Jon Kitna for the kneel-down.

Williams down in Big D

Roy Williams offered no excuses about rust, his ribs or the medication he's been taking for a dismal performance in his return to the Cowboys' line up last week against the Falcons.

"Just played terrible," the former Lions receiver said. "I don't know where I was. I guess I was with (tight end) Martellus (Bennett) on Jupiter or something.

"The thing I've got to do is I have a chance to get better this week. I'm glad this wasn't the last game of the year, because I'd have to live with this for four or five months. That taste is out of my mouth. I'm ready to roll, ready to catch the ball and do the things that I've been doing."

Williams, who had missed two weeks (one the bye) with cracked cartilage in his ribs, caught one pass for 16 yards against the Falcons. He had five other passes thrown his way, and he dropped two.

Williams has 12 catches for 230 yards and a touchdown this season. He also has three drops, according to Stats Inc.

In the 15 games he's played since being traded to the Cowboys, Williams has 31 receptions for 428 yards and two touchdowns.

The Cowboys gave up four picks — including a first-round selection in '09 — to get Williams from the Lions.

Wither L.J.?

The Kansas City Chiefs suspended running back Larry Johnson until Nov. 9 for conduct detrimental to the team. Johnson used two gay slurs and questioned coach Todd Haley's experience in a two-day period last week.

The Chiefs are expected to cut ties with the 27th overall pick in the '03 draft.

Given the Packers' lack of pizzazz at the running back position, fans are sure to wonder whether the team might take a look at Johnson.

Probably not, considering he's constantly been in trouble since entering the league.

In 2003, Johnson was charged with aggravated assault and misdemeanor battery for allegedly brandishing a gun. Those charges were dropped after a plea agreement.

Last year, Johnson was arrested twice on assault charges but pleaded guilty to two counts of disturbing the peace and was sentenced to two years of probation.

So, we're not exactly talking about "Packer people" here.

Haynesworth puzzled

Sure, Albert Haynesworth went from the Tennessee Titans to the Washington Redskins for a lot of money.

But he also thought the Redskins were talented.

He still maintains they are, but it seems as if the Redskins (2-5) are lacking in other crucial areas.

"This is one of the most talented teams I have been on," the defensive tackle said. "Not to get it done is kind of shocking. Urgency, heart, want-to. We're lacking a lot of stuff. These last few weeks have shown maybe our true colors. You've got to actually want to.

"Once we get to that point to where we want to do something, then we'll be something. But if we just keep going our separate ways, thenwe'll keep getting slaughtered like we have."

___

This week in the NFL

Houston Texans tight end Owen Daniels, a University of Wisconsin product, leads all tight ends in catches, yards and touchdowns. He's also 10th overall, including receivers, with 497 yards. Buffalo Bills receiver Lee Evans, a teammate of Daniels' on the Badgers, was asked if Owens was this good in college. The Bills and Texans play Sunday. "You know what? No he wasn't," Evans joked. "I've talked to him and between him and (Jets safety) Jimmy Leonhard, it's great to see those guys be able to come to this level and make plays because I've seen it in college, but you never know how it transforms into the pro level. But they do a good job of putting them into positions to make plays and he's done a good job of capitalizing on them."

How woeful is Cleveland Browns quarterback Derek Anderson ? He's ranked 35th among NFL quarterbacks. His completion percentage is 43.8. His QB rating is worse at 40.6. In a 6-3 victory over Buffalo three weeks ago — the Browns' lone win — he completed 2 of 17 passes for 23 yards. In the Browns' 31-3 loss to Green Bay last week, Anderson threw 17 times to wide receivers and completed three. "I honestly know (my stats) are garbage and I haven't looked at them since I started playing," Anderson said.

Special teams will be the focus Sunday when the Chicago Bears and the Browns meet. Devin Hester of the Bears and Josh Cribbs of the Browns are 1-2 in return touchdowns since 2005 (Hester has 11, Cribbs 8). The all-time record is held by Brian Mitchell (13). "It's like a best-of-the-best," said Cribbs, who raves about Hester. "Everything about his play is inspirational to me. He's knocked down a lot of doors for the return game and special team players and is now becoming an outstanding offensive player. He's . . . letting coaches know that special teams players can be core players." Cribbs leads the NFL with a 16.4 average on 18 punt returns. He's also fourth with a 28.9 average on 25 kickoff returns. Hester has returned nine punts for 116 yards, an average of 12.9 yards.

18 — Touchdowns in 23 trips to the red zone that opponents have converted against the New York Giants' defense, the worst ratio in the league. Only twice have teams left without points. On Sunday night, the Cardinals were 3 of 4 on red-zone touchdowns and the other was a field goal.

8 — Completions by Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb on third downs that have converted first downs this season. On third downs, McNabb has completed just 15 of 30 passes for 205 yards and one touchdown. So far, McNabb has completed 57.3 percent of his passes overall and has thrown just one touchdown pass in his last 81 pass attempts.

4-3 — Record of the Texans heading into Sunday's game against the Bills. Texans have never been 5-3.

97 — Turnovers since 2004 for the Indianapolis Colts, the fewest in the league. San Diego is next with 112. The Colts are 45-3 in that span when they win the turnover battle.

Minnesota Vikings (6-1) at Green Bay Packers (4-2): Tempted just to leave this space blank because enough words have or will be written about the significance of the game. Let's look at it from a big-picture perspective. If the Packers don't win, they would have to make up essentially three games over the final nine weeks because the Vikings would hold the divisional tiebreaker. If the Packers don't win the division, they likely would have to fight it out with five other teams for the two NFC wild-card spots. Is it a must-win for the Packers? No, but it would help.

___

(c) 2009, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

Visit JSOnline, the Journal Sentinel's World Wide Web site, at http://www.jsonline.com/

Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.

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