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This winter should be warm and dry

By DAVID TEWES
Oct. 14, 2010 at 5:14 a.m.


Victoria's normal winter weatherDecember: Temperature, 55 degrees; precipitation, 2.47 inches

January: Temperature, 53 degrees; precipitation, 2.44 inches

February: Temperature, 57 degrees; 2.04 inches

Don't be expecting a white Christmas in the Crossroads this winter.

While the chance of getting snow any winter is slim, it's even slimmer this winter.

The National Weather Service and AccuWeather.com are forecasting above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for the cold season.

"It looks like a prolonged stretch of above-normal temperature patterns," said Tom Kines with AccuWeather.com. "If you're looking for snow, this winter is probably not the winter to be looking for it."

He said the dry, warm conditions could even continue into early spring.

Tom Tinsley with the National Weather Service said the outlook for warmer and drier than normal conditions is a result of what's going on thousands of miles away in the Pacific Ocean.

La Nina, cooler-than-normal water temperatures in the Pacific, will push the jet stream farther north than usual. That means the storm systems and cold fronts associated with it will mostly remain north of Texas.

"Mainly it just keeps the systems moving across the northern part of the United States," Tinsley said. "We just don't get the systems that usually move across during the winter to get the rainfall."

But Kines said that doesn't mean the entire winter will be warm and dry. He said the outlook just refers to average temperatures and precipitation for the period.

"That's not to say there can't be some cold spells," he said. "I'm sure there will be."

Kines said it appears most of Texas will have above-normal temperatures. But the northern parts of the state will be 3 or 4 degrees above normal and the southern parts will be about a degree above normal.

"Maybe in your neck of the woods it will be a couple of degrees above normal," Kines said. "Compared to last winter, which was a chilly winter, this one will be the opposite."

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