All the political pundits agree on one thing, John McCain cannot win this election, but Barack Obama certainly can lose it. What does that mean? It means the country knows John McCain, yet he cannot get Over 45. % This year, the stars are aligned for the Democrats, because a generic Democrat will beat any GOP candidate, in most cases. It's not because the Democrats are so great, its because we continue to throw the incumbents out, and start all over. According to a WSJ/NBC poll, 74% of Americans are dissatisfied with the direction this country is going. To be fair, Barack Obama has not capitalized, because he currently has a 55% risk factor, which means “I'm not exactly pleased with John McCain, but I don't know about this Obama fellow.” Eventually it will be about the economy, unless Israel attacks Iran before then, and neither candidate has produced a workable plan. In my opinion (and some pundits) believe John McCain has been taken over by the RNC, having Karl Rove in the background and Steven Schmidt calling all the shots. McCain looks uncomfortable, unlike his happy warrior mood in 2000. The McCain campaign, witnessed the powerful Clinton campaign win the Texas, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Indiana primaries by hammering away on Obama's thin resume. Remember the 3:00 a.m phone call? The John McCain campaign and their surrogates have likened Barack Obama to Hitler, Britney Spears and Paris Hilton in recent ads and talk show rhetoric. This will keep the Obama busy responding, because they vow not to be swift boated. Rap star Ludicrous recently released a new song filled with hate and over-the-top lyrics on Hillary Clinton, George W. Bush and John McCain. Why is this important? Early in the campaign, Ludicrous held a fund raiser for Barack Obama where Obama praise the rap star as a talented individual, and admitted his songs are in his IPOD. Yesterday, the Obama campaign issued a release, condemning the lyrics of Ludicrous’s new song. Pat Buchanan of MSNBC said, this incident will play into the stereotypes and help John McCain. How does Barack Obama combat all this? The campaign will quickly put up an ad, reminding people that this is the same old politics; he has been running against all along. The emphasis will be on old. He really needs to choose a Vice President to answer all the negative ads, leaving him to stay above the fray and on message. John McCain knows these tactics were the reason George W. Bush destroyed him in the South Carolina primaries, and he used them again to destroy John Kerry with the Swift boat ads. For some reason the Democrats will not get down and dirty like the Republicans and they have paid the ultimate price. It’s all about winning.
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For once you understand what I'm talking about? .....Liberals usually go the John Kerry route ,when sometimes a simple yes or no is sufficient.......I agree with your points you made.
August 1, 2008 at 9:30 a.m.I do agree with both points you made,but I would like to add something you might have missed: Barack Obama brought in a lot of new voters (18-30 yr old) and they are the cell phone crowd that does not stay at home to answer the phone.....(2) :the Obama camp is busy registering poor rural black voters who do not have a phone at all....(3)He already has a 94-1 % margin of the black vote. (4) Traditionally those groups do not vote.
I really like your input and civility on a subject that sometimes brings out the worse in us.....Have a good.one
You know, for once I understand what you're saying. It DOES seem incomprehensible that a mere novice could command such an inordinate amount of attention over that of a seasoned pol. But, then, I'm sure a lot of Democrats were astonished when Ike wrested the election over Adlai Stevenson. Twice.
August 1, 2008 at 1:23 a.m.And that observation about polls depending on land lines is most astute. This could turn out to be the GOP version of the Chicago Tribune. We shall see.
That's true Riverboat, but this poll represents a total different set of circumstances. Those were FINAL RESULTS. Some pundits are saying Obama should be up by 15pts like the congressional races,but McCain should at least hit 50pts once in this race before the Democratic convention....I don't know if this all makes sense,but you might be right in the end, the winner might win with just 48 points.
July 31, 2008 at 4:54 p.m.John McCain has been in the Senate forever and is in his second presidential run..... Four years ago Barack Obama was a state senator from Illinois....... There are SEVERAL POLLS out there ,and Obama is leading in every one of them.... Personally I don't believe the national polls taken in July ,because many only use cell phones....The Gallup Poll is a good example: among likely voters McCain leads by four points, among registered voters and daily tracking Obama is leading... I have been polled twice by Gallup this year and they are thorough,but I've still not convinced the national polls are accurate....The state wide polls are more accurate,but they're taken monthly.
I saw where some are comparing that ad with Britney and Paris to the Willie Horton ad,and the ad used against Harold Ford Jr. in the last Tennessee Senate race. It's the same people.
July 31, 2008 at 4:38 p.m.Hey, a federal judge said Harriet Miers and Bolton had to answer the subpoena.... perhaps in September Rove will be next.
Clinton won in '92 with 43% of the popular vote. (He improved to 49% the following round.) 45 % is not a magic number.
July 31, 2008 at 4:35 p.m.The Swift Boat Liars will tell you--YES. For sure. GHW Bush owes his election to one Willie Horton. So he would agree--it works. It's disgusting to me however. Doesn't matter who it is against. When is Karl Rove going to jail?
July 31, 2008 at 4:27 p.m.That's what I'm talk ing about Vet,but Obama is reluctant to go there.... Lets see some of the old Chicago politics,well maybe not,don't want to bring in Mafia into this, he has enough baggage with Jeremiah Wright,Ayers, and ludicrous...LOL
July 31, 2008 at 3:39 p.m.Don't forget that McSurge used the "C" word to describe his wife and also made the gorilla rape joke. Anyone else who would've said that would've been dragged thru the mud.
July 31, 2008 at 12:44 p.m.Wow,I wish I would have used your comments,I couldn't agree more.
July 31, 2008 at 11:51 a.m.Last night Hannity was trying to make it big deal ,because ludicrous used the "B"word to describe Hillary,but some one reminded him of a woman at John McCain's town hall meeting did the same thing and McCain laughed about it.
Nice blogging, Mike.
I wish voting for a candidate was as simple as looking at the issues, but we all know better. I wish the Democrats would get as down and dirty as Karl Rove in a mud puddle. They have to, if the Dems are gonna win the election. You have to go negative to win.
It's just like all advertising, they use it cuz it works. Everybody says they hate ads and such, but they can't help themselves - negative ads have an effect, whether it is reinforcing the current attitudeor scaring someone into a position. Like the muslim/Obama connection. My husband came back from Lousyana and said all the folks around that Texas/La. border swear Obama is a muslim and that muslims are taking over. Saw it on snopes.com (hardy har har - jeeez).
Political marketing, like all other marketing has it's place, but sometimes I think it is just pure evil. It's supposed to provide information so people can make choices, but that is assuming people make rational choices, not emotional ones.
Marketing is a tool of evil, anyway. It talks people into buying what they don't need and scares them into doing things they wouldn't do otherwise. Like vote against their self-interest.
It really is all about winning.....by the people, of the people, for the people my achin' behind.....
July 31, 2008 at 11:30 a.m.