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All the political pundits agree on one thing, John McCain cannot win this election, but Barack Obama certainly can lose it.  What does that mean?  It means the country knows John McCain, yet he cannot get  Over 45. % This year, the stars are aligned for the Democrats, because a generic Democrat will beat any GOP candidate, in most cases.  It's not because the Democrats are so great, its because we continue to throw the incumbents out, and start all over.  According to a WSJ/NBC poll, 74% of Americans are dissatisfied with the direction this country is going.  To be fair, Barack Obama has not capitalized, because he currently has a 55% risk factor, which means “I'm not exactly pleased with John McCain, but I don't know about this Obama fellow.”  Eventually it will be about the economy, unless Israel attacks Iran before then, and neither candidate has produced a workable plan.

In my opinion (and some pundits) believe John McCain has been taken over by the RNC, having Karl Rove in the background and Steven Schmidt calling all the shots.  McCain looks uncomfortable, unlike his happy warrior mood in 2000.  The McCain campaign, witnessed the powerful Clinton campaign win the Texas, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Indiana primaries by hammering away on Obama's thin resume.  Remember the 3:00 a.m phone call?  The John McCain campaign and their surrogates have likened Barack Obama to Hitler, Britney Spears and Paris Hilton in recent ads and talk show rhetoric.  This will keep the Obama busy responding, because they vow not to be swift boated.

Rap star Ludicrous recently released a new song filled with hate and over-the-top lyrics on Hillary Clinton, George W. Bush and John McCain. Why is this important?  Early in the campaign, Ludicrous held a fund raiser for Barack Obama where Obama praise the rap star as a talented individual, and admitted his songs are in his IPOD.  Yesterday, the Obama campaign issued a release, condemning the lyrics of Ludicrous’s new song.  Pat Buchanan of MSNBC said, this incident will play into the stereotypes and help John McCain.

How does Barack Obama combat all this?  The campaign will quickly put up an ad, reminding people that this is the same old politics; he has been running against all along.  The emphasis will be on old.  He really needs to choose a Vice President to answer all the negative ads, leaving him to stay above the fray and on message.  John McCain knows these tactics were the reason George W. Bush destroyed him in the South Carolina primaries, and he used them again to destroy John Kerry with the Swift boat ads.  For some reason the Democrats will not get down and dirty like the Republicans and they have paid the ultimate price.  It’s all about winning.