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This blog it just my independent unofficial analysis of the upcoming national midterm elections. It will have a little bit of a partisan outlook but that's to be expected; that's who I am. I'm not going to lie but none of us will ever know how or, why the electorate voted the way they did, until after we read the exit polls. Then again, voters have been known to lie to pollsters.

I don't think the republicans will take over the senate but the democratic majority will be cut down to about four votes or less. The republicans need 39 seats to regain the majority, they lost in 2006. It's very difficult to predict how many seats they will pick up but conventional wisdom tells us that they will take the House of Representatives. If they don't regain the house, it will be a devastating loss for the GOP but it won't be a mandate for the democrats. If the republicans win by large margin; they will be expected to lead instead of obstructing. I believe if they lose or win by just four seats or less, they will use the two years to demonize the democrats and prepare for the 2012 elections. I expect the GOP to issue many subpoenas and use the same voting tactics they criticized the democrats for using. Either way, it is very likely we will have gridlock for the next two years.

How it began: Because of the melt down of Wall Street, private sector firms were no longer able to obtain loans; thus creating layoffs of 700,000 jobs a month in the latter part of 2008 and continuing into the first quarter of 2009. Companies were already sending jobs overseas, compounding the problem. The anxiety, anger and fear were in place when president Obama took the oath of office. They showed their anger when the Bush administration said that unless the taxpayers bailed out Wall Street to the tune of $700 billion ,to purchase worthless foreclosed homes, our economy was going collapse. In hindsight, it turned out to be a pretty good move because it brought back Wall Street in a relatively short time. We have had been repaid for the most part, with interest. During this short time period in 2009, people were struggling and tightening their belts and could not understand why Wall Street were still paying their employees huge bonuses; the anger was building. In came the new administration with a stimulus plan of $787 billion to add to that $700 billion with a promise it would reduce unemployment to 8%... The job markets kept getting dimmer but now the democrats tried to convince 85% of Americans who had health insurance that it would be in their best interest to increase the debt by a trillion or so, to stop the rising cost of health care and insure 31million new customers. In hindsight, the administration did a poor job of selling their ideas, thoughts, and plans for the future. On the other hand, the GOP with the help of their media did a better job of demonizing the Democrats' efforts... I have always said “Republicans are great campaigners but they can't govern..". Yesterday, I heard that it will take about seven years to regain a large number of manufacturing jobs and another 13 years for the housing market to come back. Jobless claims are up, meaning more people are looking for work with some hope. Who knows, in times like these, prognosticators come a dime a dozen.

This administration made mistakes and hopefully they will learn from them. I think these are their top three domestic mistakes:

1... I think that they should have gone with their gut feeling without republican support in passing the stimulus plan. They should have concentrated on the three democrats they needed to pass the measure with more infrastructure projects and less tax cuts needed to appease the three republicans they got. Over 100 republicans have showed up at various infrastructure projects for photo ops with their constituents. The administration should have exploited the ceremonies. Infrastructure jobs are always a great consumer confidence builder and it's a great stimulus. They should've made outsourcing the number one problem.

2.... I think president Obama made a rookie mistake by thinking he was the one that was going to change the polarizing atmosphere in Washington... You compromise from a position of strength; not bipartisanship...i.e. You go for the whole enchilada and then bargain down. They did this with the taking over of GM and it turned out to be quite successful. GM will be able to pay back their loans and now have a new plan for the future. The temporary takeover has not generated much anger.

3.... I think most people think that passing Health Care was the democrat’s biggest mistake. I know a lot of democrats think that. I disagree, because 48,000 people were dying annually because of lack of health care. The republicans we're never going do anything about the rising cost of health care or availability. The mistake the democrats made was not putting single payer universal Health Care on the table from the start. They could have called it “Medicare for All" which would've been a simple addition to Medicare. That's easy to understand and explain. That could have been the bargaining chip and the republicans would likely have settled for the public option. Instead, they settled for barely passing a major piece of legislation, using what a lot of people thought were parliamentary tricks. That's the weakest option that they could have hoped for. The result was a good Health Care law that needs a lot of improvement and revising to keep up with the continuing shenanigans of the insurance companies. I think it will be a landmark piece of legislation like Social Security and Medicare; not so good at first, but when the kinks are worked out, the people will love it and fight to keep it.

I wrote about the mistakes of the Obama administration but I understand they cannot sell patience in an atmosphere of impatience. The 9.6% unemployment rings louder than “we averted a depression.” It’s all about results and what have you done for me lately.. “Where is my job and how long will I keep it?” No one likes excuses.

That's my take but I hope you take notice that I didn't pretend to speak for the Democratic Party or the American people. I did not use polls to come up with my conclusion; I'm just looking back and reflecting. I'm not even posting any references because this blog is just my own recollection of the past 22 months. I'm fully aware that opinions vary and I could be wrong. Regardless of the outcome, the sun will come up on November 3 and I will probably be disappointed and at the same time looking forward to 2012.