The Republican Party, Fox News, and Karl Rove, will throw everything but the kitchen sink at Ron Paul, as they have if the congressman wins Iowa. As things stand now, a Ron Paul win in Iowa would neutralize Newt Gingrich thereby helping Mitt Romney, who is leading in New Hampshire. That's conventional wisdom, but this race is anything but that. The establishment Republicans do not want Ron Paul to gain any momentum or for him to upset the apple cart. The establishment GOP wants the race to be between Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney. The Democrats can play a little mischief by voting for Ron Paul in the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary.
Iowa is not known as a bellwether state because the winner of that state's caucus hardly ever gets the nomination. South Carolina has been known as the state that sorts it all out for Republicans. The Iowa Caucus is still important because it's the first state to vote, and the winner gets the momentum and cash donations going into New Hampshire; and some candidates will drop out if they don't meet their expectations or have the necessary funds to continue. Ron Paul should win the Iowa Caucus; afterall he set up camp in that state a long time ago, and he has a large staff there. Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich have hardly stepped into that state. Newt Gingrich lost his lead in Iowa due to the daily negative ads by Romney and Paul. According to the pollsters, Gingrich's points were divided amongst Bachmann, Perry and Santorum. Today's money to win Iowa is on Ron Paul but everyone is still in the ball game meaning that second,third and forth place have some meaning.
Ron Paul has been a thorn in the GOP's side for a long time, but he knows America will never elect a Libertarian, so he picked the GOP as a marriage of convenience. Ron Paul's nonintervention or isolationist views are not in line with the Republican Party. Ron Paul's stance on Iran getting a nuclear weapon is not a popular position in either party or the majority of our citizens. Most Americans are with Ron Paul on Iraq and Afghanistan, but they don't agree that we should ignore the obvious threats around us. Last night I heard John McCain's old campaign manager, Steve Schmidt, say that Ron Paul's views on Iran scare the GOP because Obama will come into the debates with an upper hand on foreign policy, so saying it's OK for Iran to have a nuclear weapon will not sit well with the undecided.
Karl Rove and the others who are considered part of the establishment GOP are looking ahead past this election and Ron Paul or the Tea Party are not part of the plans. Despite a terrible economy, the GOP establishment thinks that only Mitt Romney (even though they don't like him or trust him) has a chance to beat President Obama....Don't get me wrong the Democrats really want to win, but the Republicans need to win.
It's a good chance that the economy will improve by 2014, and if the healthcare gets by the Supreme Court, all the troops will be out of Afghanistan, and if things get back to normal; the next democratic nominee like a Governor Cuomo of New York, will stand an excellent chance against the best Republicans throw at them.
If the Republican candidate fails against Obama; it will throw the Republican Party into a tailspin; tea party vs. establishment. There's the reason they don't want Ron Party to run in a third party, and they will do everything to try to keep him in the GOP. The most effective third-party candidate, Ross Perot, got ~20% of the Vote elevating Bill Clinton to the presidency. This election will be tight, knowing that, will Ron Paul want to leave politics knowing he helped President Obama win a second term? Democrats still haven't forgotten Ralph Nader for Al Gore's loss.
If President Obama wins, he would most likely have presidential coattails helping to regain the house and maintaining the Senate. The next president would likely appoint two replacement Supreme Court judges and set the course for the years to come.
I think the race is still unpredictable but it just gives us something to discuss. I still think it will probably be Romney v Obama without a brokered convention because Romney will have the necessary delegates come convention time, August, 27, 2012 in Tampa, Florida. I’m pretty sure we will have third party candidates as usual but they will not influence the election. What do I know and I’ve been wrong before; I’m just an outside observer having fun.
This is my last blog until after Christmas,so Merry Christmas,Happy Hanukkah and Happy Holidays to all.
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