This blog represents the views of the author alone and not the newspaper.
I don’t know what role James “Ragin ‘Cajun” Carville will be playing in the 2020 presidential race. Will he be Biden’s political consultant? Will he be a guest to give his political opinion? Whatever it is, I welcome his knowledge and point of view. He’s not backing down on his latest prediction that Donald Trump will step down rather than fight in a losing campaign. Trump is down by double digits in most of the polls.
Don’t give me that old GOP line, remember how wrong the polls were in 2016 because they weren’t. National polls reflect the popular vote. In the waning days of the election, Hillary was up by 3- points and that’s she won the popular vote by. The state polls were all over the place and unreliable thus Trump won three Rust Belt states by a mere 77,000 votes in the Electoral College; where it counts. Nevertheless, Donald Trump is no longer the unknown, so 2016 doesn’t matter.
The Democrats need a James Carville type who will respond to any attack in real-time, just like he and Paul Begala did for Bill Clinton. James warns us about relying on the ads of anti-Trump Republicans aired by the Lincoln Project that shows a negative side of Trump but doesn’t emphasize the importance of electing Joe Biden and down-ticket candidates.
Mr. Carville agrees with the Biden campaign’s of keeping Biden away from large crowds during the pandemic. It sends a role model message and when Trump is digging a hole, you get out of the way and watch him in amusement; as your team cut ads.
I kind of wish my party would vote as if they think Biden is fifteen points behind and needs each and every vote because the election returns might be a mess. I can see the battles over mail-in ballots, long lines, limited poll workers, poll machines, and fewer voting places. Good odds we might not know a clear winner on election night.
James Carville is looking at Trump being underwater in two key categories: COVID response and race relations. Trump is -56% in COVID response and -63 % in race relations.
I’m not in the same league as James Carville but there are some 50 million people unemployed right now and unemployment insurance is about to run out. I also see a coronavirus out-of-control with no one at 30,000 feet above the ground looking, planning, and guiding us through this crisis. The commander in chief has turned over this war, against an invincible enemy, to the ground forces at the state and local level. I don’t see that changing by November 3, 2020.
President Trump is still the incumbent, has a current 95% approval in his party and has a very loyal base who will turn out.
Last week, I saw the test run of the GOP 2020 presidential campaign game. The surrogates are going to try and paint Joe Biden as a basement hermit who borders on dementia. They will say that it is not Biden’s party; it’s the party of AOC and Elizabeth Warren. Biden is just a placeholder.
They’ll see if they can get any traction with that plan until their October surprise arrives.
The party is putting all their eggs in the bombshell United States Attorney John Durham will hopefully deliver. Durham is supposed to undo every investigation of Trump and his cronies. They are hoping Durham finds dirt on the Obama DOJ and Biden’s illegal activity in Ukraine. Durham’s report will have to have evidence without dispute, to invalidate the entire Mueller report, every IG report(s), and documented evidence on hand. The report cannot absolve Michael Flynn because he has already pled guilty a couple of times and has apologized for his crimes.
Don’t underestimate the loyalty of a Trump follower. Whatever we think of Trump’s obvious failings doesn’t resonate with his followers or his party. I was stunned when a long time conservative friend wrote this sentence on my timeline “ God put Trump in the presidency to see if he could save us from the country going down the drain, after 8 years of Obama and sleepy joe, who did nothing to help race relations, but made it worse.” Do people really think God involves himself in American politics? Do they not read the part where Jesus overthrew the tables of the money changers? I keep my politics secular so I won’t ask the obvious question…Ok, if you insist. Why Trump?
There are those who think the Democrats want his virus to remain so it hurts Trump and republican governors. That’s absurd. Why would we want our loved ones to suffer for an election?
Others think the media will forget the virus once the election is over. That is absurd. Hospital ICUs at full capacity will always get worldwide attention. It wasn’t that long ago when we were shocked at Italy’s Covid-19 infection rate and now they have flattened their curve and we are still trying to bend the curve.
I didn’t get to the latest Russia bounty on American soldiers’ scandal but next week it will be much clearer. How many people are comfortable with the fact that the current president doesn’t read his presidential daily briefs?